Sunday, May 30, 2004

Bush Up in Latest Ohio Poll

The Mason-Dixon/Plain Dealer Poll has Bush leading significantly, by 6%. This sounds high and contradicts other recent polls that have Kerry winning (one even with Kerry up 7%). It is likely close, but the swing reported in this poll seems like they got a bad sample. This is a problem in Ohio because we have such a polarized geography. Zip codes can predict voting patterns to such degree that polls are almost moot. The real issue is turnout. That is where Bush is in trouble. I do not think he will get the volume of turnout he needs to win by 6% as this poll suggests. Ohio will be close come November, no matter who wins.

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