In what I think is a first, Wulsin leads Schmidt 48 to 45 (pdf) in a poll taken from Oct 8-10. The most interesting item was Bush's approval rating was only 43% in the 2nd district, with 50% disapproving. Bush got 64% of the vote in the 2nd in 2004.
Wulsin is really contending. She has Murtha coming to town on Saturday, who attracts much needed attention. If she can get the money, she has a real shot. If Schmidt doesn't have the money already, she may have big problems. With a large local dislike for Mean Jean inside the GOP (See the Brinkman crowd), the impending Democratic wave actually may keep hardliners on their hands Nov. 7th. The CW is that a Tom Brinkman-like candidate would then run against Wulsin in 2008 and clean up. As many in the GOP hate Brinkman as they do Schmidt, so the CW is likely not going to pan out in 2008 when the GOP runs a Portman clone instead.